AI companies are racing to build AIs that are smarter than humans in every way.
In AI 2027, we predicted that this would result in either extinction or irreversible concentration of power. Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead.
In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intentionally enters a regime of mutually assured compute destruction.
Plan A is primarily a recommendation, not a prediction. This scenario is not our best guess as to what the future will actually look like. Instead, it’s a vehicle for communicating and stress-testing our policy recommendations.
In this AI 2040 scenario, Plan A is implemented successfully, albeit imperfectly and only in the nick of time.
- The Scenario · Plan A — The Deal
- Appendix: The Alternative Plans · Plan B — Sabotage · Plan C — The Slowdown · Plan D — The Race · Plan S — Shutdown
- Supplements · ai-2040.com/supplements
The AI 2040: Plan A scenario is the third major release from the AI Futures Project, alongside AI 2027 and the AI Futures Model. We’re a research nonprofit working to forecast the future of advanced AI and (now) offer recommendations for navigating it.
You can reach us at info@aifutures.org. We look forward to hearing from you.
AI Futures Project
ai-futures.org
AI 2040